Brigadier Nigel Hall’s (founder of New Bletchley) opening remarks at the launch of our report briefing on "Rebuild The Army Now – to Prepare, Prevent, Deter War" on 20th March 2024 at RUSI, 61 Whitehall, London:

“Good morning. Thank you so much for coming.

NewBletchley is a cheeky name. It was born in an unguarded reflexive response to comments made by a distinguished former Cabinet Secretary at a strategic gathering not far from here in 2018. He had just said that there was something wrong in Whitehall’s thinking engine room, that the Cabinet Office needed beefing up, including with more staff officers. I promptly responded that, with the greatest respect, that would not solve the problem, it would bake in more closed insider-only thinking. I splurted out that we needed a 21st century, very different looking, ad-hoc network a la Bletchley Park which included the best of former insiders along with myriad other challengers and thinkers. The Daily Telegraph picked this up and a news column referring to a former NATO adviser calling for a New Bletchley bears some responsibility….

Fast forward now to this 9th NB panel discussion and New Model Army Report. First, Lord Robertson, our distinguished Chair, sends his apologies. His hectic schedule detains him elsewhere. But please let me summarise 2 points that he made in his ‘on the record’ introductory remarks at our 27th Feb panel discussion and which he would want me to reiterate. 

First, that whilst the focus and subject of this panel was about the Army so much of what would be said – and indeed was –applied equally across much of the whole of British national security, notwithstanding that many consider the Army to be the weakest link.

Second, Lord Robertson reflected that Generations Z and Alpha serving Army personnel might look at the panel and conclude that it contained some of the people partly responsible for today’s situation. We needed to reflect on that. On the other hand, the panel represented an exceptional mix of those who had held the highest responsibilities. It should therefore be capable of reflective diagnosis of the present situation and give collective critical friend advice that others, perhaps, could not. I hope, and believe, that we have lived up to this.

NB panel discussions are different to the usual. They are held in private, without an audience or recording, under strict Chatham House rules. To avoid any ‘mirror, mirror, on the wall’ tendencies panels always include distinguished academic and media representatives. NB reports are traditionally short and with no attribution. To be clear not every panelist will support every point made but the report reflects a collective view of the big ideas. Today’s report is short even by NB standards. That is because it is specifically addressed to the post-election PM and defence secretary – whoever they may be. NewBletchley is, of course, apolitical.

There is more to New Model Army than a snappy/catchy shortcut name for this panel and report. It is worth 30 seconds googling. Because the 17th century English New Model Army can be a real inspiration. It was a turnaround in short order Army and catapulted up to the top of the European army batting order. More money, I’m sure, helped but was NOT the defining feature. Under brilliant leadership, it organised itself much better, trained collectively (note), developed the best concepts and tactics, had a rigorous discipline and outstanding high morale. In short it became the most innovative and professional army. Lesson today: do so again, become the most innovative and agile professional army. No one is suggesting a large continental-style army. Just a medium size British bespoke thoroughly professional army once again.

Can I handover asking this question: is history calling? This NB report argues that we need to rebuild a Tier 1 (NATO ‘ready to fight now’), exemplar, and widely respected British Army Now. Right away. I submit that in this pre-war era, this is a primary national interest. Europe needs it, NATO wants it, and many beyond will benefit from it too. Thank you.”

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New Bletchley Network. Report No ⓽. 27 February 2024

Rebuild The Army Now – to Prepare, Prevent, Deter War

For the UK’s post-election Prime Minister and Defence Secretary

Some ideas and imperatives identified in discussion involvingan exceptional panel of experts including a former NATO Secretary General/ Defence Secretary, a former national security adviser, a former defence and army chief, former commanders of Joint Forces Command and the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, a former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, plus academic, defence media, and defence business representatives.

The participants are not responsible for any particular idea, but offer the issues raised as a starting point for discussion.

Held at The Royal United Services Institute, London.

Deterrence is based on credibility. British Army credibility has been weakened by 20 plus years of hollowing out and diminished fighting power. Army morale is fragile. A serious wake up signal has come from a senior figure in NATO who said that the British Army was no longer graded ‘Tier 1’ (NATO’s ‘ready to fight now’ level). A credible New Model Army (NMA) is needed now.

BIG IDEAS:

• We must signal to adversaries and potential adversaries the fact that we are strong and want to get stronger whilst at the same time having no interest in attacking or subverting any non-aggressive city or country.

• To deter and prevent war we need a credible New Model Army – an exemplar and widely respected ready to go to war land force and reserves.

• This requires top political level ownership and engagement across government to drive the level of change required.

• To be credible in deterrence terms we need to prepare genuinely for war and communicate this to potential foes, NATO and allies, and particularly to the British public.

• We must deliver on putting our people first. This requires radical root and branch reform of support across the board for our personnel and families.

• The NMA design must rest within a clear 10-year framework national and defence strategy that prioritises preparing forhigh-intensity war fighting and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area, whilst recognising that we do not get to choose threats and must be able to deploy accordingly.

• The NMA must focus on being the land component of an integrated/combined/joint/allied/5-domain force (Land, Sea, Air, Cyber, Space), principally within NATO and built around the foundation of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps and Joint Expeditionary Force. The UK’s unique selling point is providing Rapid Reaction/Joint Expeditionary Forces – responsive/fast/combined arms.

• Mass matters. We should factor in NATO/Allied mass. Nevertheless, our land forces and reserves could be said to have fallen far below national critical mass. This must be reversed and the relationship between size and technology must be better understood and articulated.

• We must recreate the capacity for resilience and mobilisation. We need to move to a ‘whole of nation’, scalable readiness approach that includes appropriate reserves including industrial capacity and consideration of national resilience. Overhauling our reserves and in extremis capacity is at least as important as overhauling the Regular Army. 

• The hollowing out of the regular and reserves ready force must be reversed. The aim should be to provide the modern equipment, enablers, ammunition, support, and sustainment to NATO Tier 1 ‘ready to fight now’ level accreditation and to ensure the ability to properly train that force at scale.

• Innovation and Agility. The digital age is changing equipment, organisation, and method in profound ways. The NMA should be a global pacesetter and, in partnership with government and industry, restore effectiveness at sustainable price and drive exports.

• Completely reset defence acquisition and supply. Significant savings and better value for money can be achieved. Defence and industry through-life partnerships and a top-level defence-industry and collaboration council should be established.

• We need to consider streamlining and reconfiguring our Whitehall top security architecture and subordinate headquarters. We need war-ready ‘whole of nation’ new command and control arrangements and realign responsibility, accountability, authority, and budgetary chains.

• We have to be bold and make difficult, sometimes unpopular, decisions if we are to deliver credible fighting power within realistic budgets and to meet the time imperative. This requires savvier internal and public strategic communication.

• The New Model Regular Army and reserves must reconnect across our communities. They should become the ‘go to’ career choice for generations Z and Alpha based upon outstanding training, education, and skills opportunities, and exciting lived experience.

• Delivering all this. Turning around 30 years of decline and producing an exemplar NMA demands a concerted campaign. It probably requires an overarching COVID vaccines-style task force approach if it is to be delivered in time. For government and the Treasury this requires a coherent programme of resourced reform against tight milestones in this era.

Panellists:

Chair: The Lord George Robertson -  former NATO Secretary General and Defence Secretary

General Sir Richard Barrons -  former Commander Joint Forces Command

Professor Michael Clarke -  former Director-General of RUSI

Kevin Craven -  CEO ADS Group

Major General Tim Cross -  former Divisional Commander

Brigadier Nigel Hall -  founder of NewBletchley

Major General Rupert Jones -  former Deputy Commander of the Counter-ISIS Coalition

Shashank Joshi -  Defence Editor, The Economist

Colonel Debi Lomax -  former CDS/CGS Adviser

Lt Colonel Paddy Nicoll -  NewBletchley

General The Lord David Richards -  former Defence and Army Chief

The Lord Mark Sedwill -  former Cabinet Secretary and National Security Adviser

General Sir Richard Shirreff -  former DSACEUR and Commander ARRC.

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy:

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher today’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• Government and public bodies are too slow moving,
  
• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.

Report Lead Author: Nigel Hall 

©️NewBletchley April 2024

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NewBletchley Network. Report No 8. February 2021

The Future Union

Introduction:

This was a nonpartisan gathering held in private in order to facilitate a candid discussion. The panel included former UK government ministers, advisers, former and current MPs, a former first minister of Wales, a member of the Scottish Parliament, and a Northern Ireland MP and former member of the Northern Ireland Assembly.  

Key Findings:

We must:

• Acknowledge the scale and immediacy of the constitutional challenges now facing the Union and the country.
  
• Set out a vision of a shared purpose.
  
• Adopt a style and language designed to draw national and local leaders into a consensus on the way forward.
  
• Implement strong changes to intra-governmental machinery as a practical necessity and a sign of good intent.
  
• Open up a wider public discussion about the best way of achieving shared objectives including the relations between and within the nations.
  
• Ensure that the Union works for all 4 nations, and provides the best shared endeavour response to 21st century challenges.
  
• Reset England’s machinery of government. 
  
• Improve local governance and relationship between the centre and local government.

It remains to be seen:

• Whether the Union remains a unitary state, becomes a new Union of Cooperation, or morphs into a quasi/federal state.
  
• If we will need a written constitution.
  
• How this will affect Parliament.

Panellists:

Chair: Danny Kruger , Conservative MP for Devizes, former political secretary to the PM, and former government civil society adviser. 

John Denham , former Labour MP, former Communities Secretary, and now Director of the Centre for English Identity and Politics at Southampton Uni. 

Lord (Andrew) Dunlop , former Conservative Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Scotland and Northern Ireland, former Downing Street Chief Union Adviser, and recent author of the Dunlop Review into UK Government Union Capability. 

Emma Lowell-Buck , Labour MP for South Shields, and former shadow minister for devolution and local government.

Carla Lockhart , Democratic Unionist Party MP for Upper Bann, and previously Member of the Legislative Assembly for Upper Bann. 

Carwyn Jones , Labour member of the Senedd for Bridgend, former First Minister of Wales and Leader of Welsh Labour, and now Professor of Law at Aberystwyth University. 

Baroness (Gisela) Stuart , former Labour MP, Chair of Wilton Park, and steering group member of the Constitution Reform Group.  

Lord (Robert) Salisbury , former Conservative MP, former Leader of the House of Lords, and Chair of the Constitution Reform Group. 

Nick Timothy , Conservative and former political and special adviser, and former joint Downing Street Chief of Staff. 

Adam Tomkins , Scottish Conservative MSP for the Glasgow Region and Professor of Public Law at Glasgow University. 

In attendance: Nigel Hall , co-convener and founder of NewBletchley. 

BIG IDEAS:

Acknowledge the scale and immediacy of the challenges now facing the Union and the country

Doing nothing is not an option. Pro-Union politicians have lost the momentum and initiative. If we remain on the current trajectory the Union could break up within 10 years. Scottish nationalism and the forthcoming May election attract most current media attention, but there are serious stresses and strains across every nation, region, and tier of government. The English Problem cannot be ignored any longer. The relationship between the centre and local communities is in urgent need of repair. There are more people in England who are ambivalent about the Union than separatists in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland combined.

Set out a vision of a shared purpose

A forward looking, next generation appealing, 21st century shared purpose must be articulated. We must stop feeding the beasts of grievances. Renewal, and the post-Covid and post-Brexit ‘Building Back Better’ reset provide the Union with this shared purpose and relevance. Unifying concepts and partnerships around creating a prosperous Union in which everyone benefits: tackling climate change - moving to net zero - and protecting the environment provide ample opportunities. We all need enhanced security and to be ‘match-fit’ in the face of new and mounting risks and threats, and this can be better achieved and at less cost together within a refashioned Union. Based upon our shared values around democracy and social justice, the new vision should embrace common social and economic objectives.

Adopt a style and language designed to draw national and local leaders into a consensus on the way forward

Changes of tone, culture, and attitude are prerequisites to improving relationships and support for the Union. There is a widely held view that the way England speaks to and about the Union is a problem. Over the last two (‘devolve and forget’) decades the focus has been on process and devolving powers. Official and grass roots good relations need to be re-kindled. This will require savvy top-down and bottom-up effort. A fully fledged hearts and minds campaign is called for.

Implement strong changes to intra-governmental machinery as a practical necessity and a sign of good intent

To-date the intra-governmental machinery has barely been used to beneficial effect. It has been reactive and disputes resolution-focused. The Covid pandemic has shone a spotlight on some poor teamwork across all four nations, precisely when the situation demanded exceptional cooperation and collaboration. Starting to improve the intra-governmental machinery and make it the top level transmission line of proactivity and shared government business can be an early demonstration of intent and direction of travel.

Open up a wider public discussion about the best way of achieving shared objectives including the relations between and within the nations

There is a wide range of views about how to achieve requisite public consultation and engagement. But there is near unanimity that it has to be of an order of magnitude better than previously. Linked to this, and setting a helpful example, is the option of a Speaker’s Conference to harness political party ideas in the most constructive neutral format, and link the public directly into the deliberations of Parliament.

Ensure that the Union works for all 4 nations, and provides the best shared endeavour response to 21st century challenges

The Covid pandemic and our responses to it have demonstrated graphically how much better and more effective shared endeavour responses and delivery partnerships can be in the face of 21st century challenges. The potential practical shared unifying projects (building on the vision and unifying concepts covered above) include cross border infrastructure, transport, scientific and business ventures exploiting our scientific, engineering, educational, and commercial advantages in the global fast growing markets. Inspirational global and international level opportunities include those to do with climate, the environment, and bio science and security can be a source of identity and pride. Niche international partnerships, such as a Space project partnership with Australia, Japan, and others could work well for all 4 nations. Together the Union can be in the vanguard of global scientific and economic progress. A Union-wide cooperation fund can incentivise such schemes, including with match funding from the devolved governments as well as from the private sector.

Reset England’s machinery of government

Whatever the final destination of the Union, there has to be a delineation of Union and English interests, and a reset of England’s machinery of government. England must discover a new forward looking 21st century identity. In the era of ‘taking back control’, many parts of the country feel alienated from Westminster and are deeply frustrated with current arrangements. Whether or not the UK moves toward symmetrical devolution and ‘tidy’ common subnational governance structures, practical incremental steps are required for England, including empowering more city regions and local communities.

Improve local governance and relationship between the centre and local government

A passionate plea, which was widely supported, was for at least as much effort to be put into improving the quality and accountability of local politicians and governance structures as will go into devolving more powers. This applies equally across all four nations. The same applies with regard to improving relationships between the centre and local communities.

Will the Union remain a unitary state, become a new Union of Cooperation, or morph into a Quasi/Federal State?

It remains to be seen whether the UK remains a unitary state, becomes a new Union of Cooperation, or morphs into a quasi/federal state. There are proponents of a quasi/federal destination and others who contend that with England representing 85% of the UK’s population this would be unworkable. However, there is general agreement that the status quo cannot continue and that a constitutional settlement of some kind will be necessary, that the Union needs ‘less Westminster’ and more of a ‘Partnership Union’, and that there is much more required from London than just writing cheques. We should examine carefully what it is that the United States and Canada do to hold their countries together. It may well be that England will have to continue to be ‘disproportionately generous’ in the future.

Do we need a written constitution?

There is limited appetite for ‘big bang’ multi layer constitutional change of the type that is normally triggered by war or catastrophe and which requires a written constitution. However, there are a growing number of people who believe that some substantial constitutional and legislative changes are and will prove necessary. Some contend that a start should be made soon in order to get upstream of events and pressures.

So What for Parliament?

Key questions for a Speaker’s Conference will include: what happens in the event of a UK government lacking a majority of English seats? And what does a re-vamped House of Lords/Second Chamber/Senate look like? 

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy:

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher Britain’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• · There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• · There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• · Government and public bodies are too slow moving,
  
• · They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• · Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.
  

The conveners of the meeting were Nigel Hall, designer and project leader of the Churchill 2015 21st Century Global Leadership Programme, Danny Kruger MP, and Professor John Denham .

Report Lead Author: Nigel Hall 

©️NewBletchley April 2020

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New Bletchley. Report No 7. April 2020.

Jersey: Future Jersey

Ideas presented by a diverse panel of Islanders

Held remotely on 23rd April 2020 using teleconference facilities 

Introduction:

This was an apolitical gathering held in private in order to facilitate a candid discussion. The panel included a senior former politician, a current States backbencher and scrutiny panel member, experienced former officials, and business figures.

Key Findings:

• Major long-term decisions that will transform Jersey society and economy must flow from a reassessment of Jersey’s core values and governance in light of the scale and impact of this Covid-19 severe emergency.
  
• Government decision-making must become better informed and consulted, and nimbler and more agile. There is a need to harness the available intellectual capital on the island as a solution to most of the issues identified.
  
• We need to become a more cohesive society and shift to a much more sustainable economy.

Panellists

Chair: Nigel Hall – Founder of NewBletchley, former British Army Brigadier.

India Hamilton – Founding board member of SCOOP the sustainable cooperative.

Dominic Jones – Jersey Pottery, formerly in law and finance.

Alan MacLean – Former senior government minister and businessman.

Jess Perchard – States backbencher and scrutiny panel member, secondary school teacher.

Tim Ross-Gower - Cyber and IT infrastructure expert.

Günther Thumann – Chair of Jersey Finance, former IMF economist.

Charlotte Valeur – Chair of the IOD, former investment banker.

Julia Warrander – Affinity Private Wealth, former Vice Chair of Brighter Futures (unable to attend in person, ideas by email).

Steven Wilderspin – Chartered Accountant and professional independent director.

BIG IDEAS:

Reassessment of Jersey’s core values and governance

Major long-term decisions that will transform Jersey society and economy must flow from a reassessment of Jersey’s core values and governance in light of the scale and impact of this Covid-19 severe emergency. We should seek to become a better, more united, and kinder society. But how do we settle the trade-offs between shareholder and stakeholder capitalism, and health/wellbeing (community) and jobs/growth (economy)? Big decisions will have to be made by government in short order in coming months. What ‘new order’ public and professional organisations engagement and consultation mechanisms are needed to provide some democratic legitimacy to major decisions made? How do we make government more accountable? We need higher political and voter participation which itself requires electoral reform, and a less hostile social media and working environment.

Better government decision-making

Government decision-making must become better informed and consulted, and nimbler and more agile. As UK government has started to do, and as Tony Blair recommends, bring in outside experts who are used to operating in extremely challenging situations. Blair strongly commends the appointment of Lord Deighton as UK PPE Tsar, and he says that nine other top work streams require similar temporary crisis leadership reinforcement. Jersey should consider its bespoke variation of the same. To-date advice to ministers has been too one dimensional. Jersey needs a small strategic assessment and coordination cell that collates and analyses information and data from multiple sources and networks to better advise ministers. Ministers must have access to reliable independent advice.

A more cohesive society

Jersey is a wealthy island that has real poverty too. Underlying problems to do with inequality are set to worsen, and we need to be prepared for less tolerance of the status quo. Companies should be encouraged to sign up to the living wage. Those made redundant due to Covid-19 must receive fair and reasonable financial support, and be kept busy through repurposed employment and first class re/up-skilling training programmes. The gap between population and government and officials can be reduced by innovative engagement schemes such as SurveyMonkey on line surveys, town hall meetings, citizen assemblies, and better engagement forums with every sector and key professional organisations. 

A much more sustainable economy

The economy reset and recovery plan must be built around moving more quickly than was assumed pre-pandemic to a much more sustainable economy that positions Jersey as an environment and climate change exemplar. As an island with our size of population we have extraordinary comparative advantage, and must exploit our potential as a test-bed. Repurposing many of those workers made redundant in bold and accelerated green economy projects can become win-wins. We must limit our desire to bring goods in from outside. Pre-Covid-19 supply chain and re-cycling thinking has to be rigorously challenged. Old thinking on costs failed to price in the resilience we require in crisis, including pandemic, and the relative environmental and climate change damage caused. Our island agriculture and fishing urgently need to be increased, and with maximum self-sufficiency and tough clean/organic sustainability targets set. We should build a resilient and regenerative local food network that supports rural livelihoods and improves social wellbeing. Job creation, island resilience, and economic growth through ‘sharing and circular economy’ biodiversity schemes should be encouraged and incentivised.

Economy Reset and Recovery Plan

The starting point is government providing the necessary confidence and creative environment. The key - as our history of adapting and transforming in downturns reminds us - is developing the right Public-Private partnership that drives much better economy and business decision-making. Priority must go to the core infrastructure businesses that enable the small businesses that represent 70% of companies to prosper. Deft pump-priming is required. There must be a significant shift to technology to reduce dependence upon imported labour and to improve productivity. Encourage investment in productivity and reward it through regulation eg work permits/licences. Incentivise a shift from passive investment (£710m from private sector rentals) to more proactive investment in local start-ups and companies. Adjust the rules and mindset that too often prioritises off-Island sourcing and procurement. Government should spend with local companies where possible. Establish the Jersey sovereign wealth fund to add further stimulus to our start ups and innovation potential.

Fiscal Framework and Tax

Jersey’s fiscal policy framework will have to be adjusted. Islanders, as the community of taxpayers, should have an input in the decision-making process. How much should the government borrow? Should it borrow short, medium, or long term? Should it buy bullet or sinking bonds? Should the government roll-over debt or run primary budget surpluses (austerity)? Should those surpluses be achieved via additional taxes (which?) or expenditure cuts (where?). We need a comprehensive review of taxation, going back to the basics of why?/who?/what? we tax and examining what is fair and proportionate. Is the talismanic 20% rate still viable? Jersey does not exist in a vacuum; the tax system has to be acceptable to requisite international bodies. This review can be conducted without spending a fortune on external consultants. As long as the expected rate of return on the rainy day fund exceeds the rate of interest on a borrowing vehicle, raising taxes is an inferior option of raising funds.

Training and Re-skilling

This crisis provides an excellent opportunity to introduce major community service and employment re/up-skilling training programmes. For societal and individual wellbeing we must ensure that our youth and those made redundant can purposefully be kept busy. Beyond private sector capacity we need public sector community schemes: health and social care reinforcement/reserve echelons, expand all uniform services with reserves, increase the size of Jersey’s Royal Engineers squadron, environment and green economy (significant capacity) programmes, digital and cyber training (see below), and partner with the private sector on-island engineering and technical training to meet new self-sufficiency resilience needs. Everyone receiving pandemic financial benefits must be gainfully employed. This is important for individual mental health and sends the clearest signal that Jersey cares for everyone of working age. 

Cyber Security Workforce and Education Tourism

Jersey can become a gold standard global centre of excellence for secure modern business using the latest technology to perform in the international marketplace. The starting point begins with the government to sure up the walls of the ageing IT infrastructure and set the right example to local businesses. There is a global shortage of cyber security experts and this is a skill set that can be sold globally from anywhere. Run 3/6/18 month courses in repurposed vacant hotels which have all the facilities required. Once travel restrictions are lifted, this can morph into an educational tourism stream giving Jersey a global reputation as somewhere that takes digital and cyber security seriously.

Youth Training

Teenager school children should join a recognised charity/youth organisation scheme – including scouts, cadet forces, St Johns Ambulance…and new cyber/digital and health cadet forces established. Take the Covid-19 opportunity to instil in the next generation that every individual has a personal responsibility and duty to their community and to others, and to enhance Jersey’s resilience.

Wellbeing and Public Morale

We could be on the edge of a serious mental health crisis. We must get upstream of this challenge noting that we may have to learn to live with this virus for a couple of years. We have a moral responsibility to support the vulnerable, and a societal need to improve individual and collective resilience. We must also prevent the welfare support budget from strangling the economy. We need to start planning now, and put in place the necessary government and voluntary organisation additional programmes. Again, an exemplar public-private partnership top structure will be key to success. Public morale is critically important. It is all about confidence in the direction of travel and overall leadership that will see us through difficult times. A key test will be whether we collectively feel that we are ‘all-in-this-together’. 

A Comprehensive Lessons Learned Process

When we get to the ‘new normal’ we should constitute a Commission to consider the myriad lessons that will have been learned here on Island as well as the relevant ones from abroad. We (like most other jurisdictions) have experienced a major wake up call and must be better prepared to face subsequent waves of this pandemic, a future novel pandemic, as well as other severe emergencies. As a community and individuals we have to become much more resilient. The focus for this Commission should be ‘what can we learn’ and not ‘who can we blame’.

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher today’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• Government and public bodies are too slow moving,
  
• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.

Report Lead Author: Nigel Hall 

©️NewBletchley April 2020

_________________________________________________________________

New Bletchley. Report No 6. April 2020.

Jersey: COVID-19 Pandemic Response

Ideas presented by a diverse panel of experienced Islanders

Held remotely on 8th April 2020 using teleconference facility

Introduction:

This was an apolitical gathering held in private in order to facilitate a candid discussion. The panel included a senior former politician, experienced former officials, and senior business figures.

Key Findings:

• We must establish a crisis-level Public-Private Partnership and fast-track mechanism that ensures that our most successful entrepreneurs and business folk can engage with senior ministers and top officials (after-note: Alan Maclean is working at pace to achieve this).
  
• We must urgently provide reliable widespread testing to establish who is infected and who has had the virus and has developed antibodies. We need to know who needs to be quarantined and who can safely return to work to help restart the economy. Currently we are flying blind.
  
• Rapid ‘tweaks’ to the Business Support Emergency Package are required if some key businesses are not to choose to hibernate, protect assets, and lay off employees. Different sectors should be triaged out of support depending when restrictions are eased following health advice – eg construction and education before retail and hospitality.

Panellists:

Chair: Nigel Hall  - Founder of NewBletchley, former British Army Brigadier.

Nick Buckles  - Former CEO of G4S, Chairman of APCOA.

Dominic Jones  - Jersey Pottery, formerly in law and finance.

Alan MacLean  - Former senior government minister and businessman.

Günther Thumann  - Chair of Jersey Finance, former IMF economist.

Charlotte Valeu r - Chair of the IOD, former investment banker.

Julia Warrander - Affinity Private Wealth, former Chair of Brighter Futures.

Steven Wilderspin - Chartered Accountant and professional independent director.

BIG IDEAS:

A crisis-level Public-Private Partnership and fast-track mechanism fit to deal with an unprecedented crisis

We must establish an unprecedented crisis-level Public-Private Partnership and fast-track mechanism that ensures that a central team made up of our most successful entrepreneurs and business folk can engage with senior ministers and top officials. In this severe crisis we must utilise the huge depth of talent on and off island as never before. This includes engaging with up to global level successful business people who hitherto have never formally engaged with the GOJ. There is an extraordinary pool of talent and resources that is largely untapped that can make a vast difference. 

Reliable widespread testing is urgently required

We must urgently provide reliable widespread testing to establish who is infected and who has had the virus and has developed antibodies. We need to know who needs to be quarantined and who can safely return to work to help restart the economy. Currently we are flying blind. To avoid being caught out again, we should appoint a Chief Scientific Adviser whose role includes horizon scanning to advise Jersey on strategic priorities and provide scientific input to top level decision making.

Rapid ‘tweaks’ to the Business Support Emergency Package

Rapid ‘tweaks’ to the Business Support Emergency Package are required if some key businesses are not to choose to hibernate, protect assets, and lay off employees. The UK approach of furloughing staff is more likely to protect jobs than the co-pay approach. Different sectors should be triaged out of support depending when restrictions are eased following health advice – eg construction and education before retail and hospitality. Given limited financial resources it will not be possible to rescue every business on the island, and we need to focus on those core businesses that provide the essential infrastructure that many smaller businesses depend upon for survival and allow a sustainable economy to evolve post-crisis.

Speed is of the essence

There is a real danger of not getting help out fast enough over the next six weeks to prevent some businesses from going under who could sustainably be rescued. A strategy, including timely and better warning and reporting systems, data, and communications is required. Much can usefully be learned from some best practice in South-East Asia and Europe.

An even more divided Society is to be avoided

There is a significant risk that the COVID-19 pandemic will create an even more divided society. At present the burden is not set to be proportionately shared between the highest paid (finance, public sector...) and the hardest hit (hospitality, retail...) who are also the lowest paid and employ approximately similar numbers of people. If we are to avoid short-term civil unrest and long-term political upheaval, we need to boldly address this inequality promptly.

Some temporary public and private sector pay cuts may be necessary for the common good.

Fiscal support must be appropriately sized and carefully targeted

Jersey has no lender of last resort (central bank) and no access to borrowing from the IMF or similar institutions.

The Island’s public sector has a sizeable net asset position which allows Jersey to provide cash and to borrow in the capital markets. The size of the fiscal support is limited, and the resources must be spent efficiently. For this to work an economic strategy and manpower resources to implement it are required.

Raising money

We must avoid austerity and significant tax hikes whilst investing to re-build. We need to borrow in the debt capital markets – interest rates are at all-time lows. We should consider issuing green and social bonds for specific projects. Institutions and individuals are increasingly opting for sustainable investments.

Fishing and agriculture are top priorities

Agriculture and fishing are the Island’s prime natural resources. In times of severe crisis the ability to use these resources to the maximum extent possible could prove vital to survival. On-island food production (including local fishing) should be significantly ramped up. 

Future proofing the recovery

The temptation to throw money at short-term only initiatives must be avoided. We must future proof the recovery. Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, renewable energy and transition to a lower carbon future can drive significant job creation, whilst increasing Jersey’s economic and environmental resilience. COVID-19 has primarily had a physical impact on society, followed by an economic and financial impact; there are learning points for our approach to climate change risks.

Re-skilling workers and drafting citizens

We need to be creative about re-skilling workers in businesses that are no longer viable and reduce the reliance on outsourcing and importing skills. We have learnt that in severe crisis we cannot assume reinforcement from outside, and that drafting of citizens for community work and eg medical support and auxiliary roles may be necessary. There are positives to be seized from this crisis: eg personal up-skilling and large-scale training and development programmes, and improved mental health and societal wellbeing from crisis response bonding and altruism. Many people are also now making good use of online resources and much of the re-skilling could be done online. We should also harness the volunteer force that is forming to support the current emergency into a contingency for the future.

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy:

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher Britain’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• Government and public bodies are too slow moving,
  
• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.
  

Nigel Hall , Founder of NewBletchley

Report Lead Author: Nigel Hall 

©️NewBletchley April 2020

_________________________________________________________________

New Bletchley. Report No 5. February 2020.

GLOBAL BRITAIN?

Ideas presented by a panel of King’s College London Student Think Tank

Held on 10th February 2020 at King’s College London Policy Institute

Introduction:

This was an apolitical gathering held in private in order to facilitate a candid discussion. The panel was formed from a cross-disciplinary collection of students and recent alumni from King’s College London. 

Key Findings:

• The UK needs to be provided with an overall sense of direction and purpose. In a time of growing geopolitical instability, we need to determine what role we want to enact in this world. The establishment of a ‘grand strategy’ will help to ensure that the UK is able to fulfil its strategic objectives, both in the short and long-term. 
  
• Our position in the future of the Commonwealth of Nations needs to be formulated. The collection of 54 countries around the globe transcends every ethnic group and different levels of social and economic development. The contemporary relevance and potential of the Commonwealth has not been fully realised. 
  
• Climate change is universal. There is great potential for the UK to leverage its political capital in playing a leading role in guiding global governance on climate change and securing a greener future for the next generation. 

Panellists:

• Chair: Sir Malcolm Rifkind , former Foreign and Defence Secretary and Chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee. 
  
• Afiq Fitri  - BA War Studies
  
• Akanshya Gurung  - MA Environment, Politics and Globalisation
  
• Anurag Koyyada  - BSc Political Economy
  
• Dylan Anderson  - MA Public Policy
  
• Eleonora Vassanelli -  BA International Relations
  
• Kevin Christopher Nolan -  MA Conflict, Security and Development
  
• Leonie Mills  - MSc Security Leadership and Society
  
• Marek Bican  - MA Politics and Contemporary History
  
• Mariana Vieira  - MA International Peace and Security
  
• Matthew Ader  - BA War Studies
  
• Modupeola Ruth Bolarinwa  - MSci Physics
  
• Ryan Chan  - BA History and International Relations
  
• Sifan Zheng -  MBBS Medicine 
  
• Wajeeh Maaz  - BA Philosophy, Politics and Economics

In Attendance:

Conveners Nigel Hall , Founder NewBletchley Network, and Dr Benedict Wilkinson, Associate Director Policy Institute King’s College London.

BIG IDEAS:

Establishment of a ‘Grand Strategy’

A coherent and balanced ‘Grand Strategy’ will help to provide an overarching guide for critical paths in innovation, and make sense of new threats. The UK should focus on the establishment of guiding principles, which are durable to changes in the geopolitical climate. A ‘Grand Strategy’ can act as a fundamental organising principle for the UK to maintain its intrinsic values on the international stage. 

Using political capital to secure a greener future

Britain has the opportunity to lead in the role for sustainability. However, it needs to show proper commitment. We need to keep to standards domestically, and invest more in countries with high clean energy possibilities and potential. We need to evaluate how we bring sustainable industries to developing countries. The UK should propose and support regulation on the trade of scarce resources, investing in green infrastructure and innovative projects in developing countries. Humanitarian aid should consider countries and communities in the global south that are disproportionately affected by climate change. 

The importance of the Commonwealth Nations

The Commonwealth provides an unprecedented and unique network of economic interests ready for commercial diplomacy, and ultimately a projection of British soft power. Going forward, the UK needs to establish a two-way relationship. A historic relationship is not strong enough to automatically establish the importance of the Commonwealth. 

Popular engagement of foreign policies

Civic engagement will enable more voices to contribute to the future of British foreign policy. The public needs to be aware of Britain’s strategy in the world. National engagement should start with young people, who should be aware of the UK’s overseas presence, influence and capability. The UK is in a position to build a platform to place young people at the heart of international policy, making it in order for the next generation of leaders to be developed. 

The role of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)

The FCO must remind it’s global network of diplomats, embassies, and consular officials, that it holds the window on to the world. The FCO is key to remind the world that Britain is open for business and ready to engage in global politics. Britain has always been an advocate for human rights. Appointment of human rights advisors across the FCO can have a major impact in the projection of British values. The FCO should also consider the deployment of digital technologies to aid diplomacy. 

The future of the UK’s relations with Iran

Iran is a potential strategic ally and trade market. We should work with back channel negotiators like Qatar, Switzerland, and Oman to push for a new nuclear deal, expedited removal of sanctions, and help to leverage support for a more peaceful dialogue. The UK should work with other nations within Europe to be able to formulate and create a new framework for a new multilateral deal with Iran, without US engagement, if necessary. 

Establishing a secure trade future after departure from the EU

Britain is entering an era of new trade deals, which can be both opportunistic and precarious. Any future trade deals should seek to maintain Britain’s trade interests and current regulations. There is the potential for investment into fast-growing developing markets. However, Britain cannot forsake its institutional values, and turn a blind eye to the humanitarian atrocities committed by domestic regimes in order to foster trade. 

The necessity to understand the politics of identity in a post-Empire Britain

British foreign policy needs to come to terms with the legacy of it’s Empire and carefully assess where it stands in the global stage shift in the balance of power.

Restructuring relations with China on the Belt and Road Initiative

On the international stage the UK cannot compete with China for direct infrastructure investments. The UK needs to show that it can commit to building long term investments into targeted enterprises and maximise the expertise of its highly skilled workforce and technology. 

The fight against disinformation

The UK needs to take leadership on combating the spread of disinformation on an international level. There is the potential to form a multilateral committee to set international standards. The UK should be a leader in developing regulations for cyber security, both domestically and internationally, but must also maintain our own cyber-defence capabilities. 

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy:

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of ‘New Bletchley’ – a 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher Britain’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• Government and public bodies are too slow moving,
  
• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.
  

Nigel Hall, Founder NewBletchley Network

Dr Benedict Wilkinson , Associate Director Policy Institute King’s College London

Sifan Zheng , President King’s Think Tank

Report Lead Author: Sifan Zheng , President King’s Think Tank

©️NewBletchley February 2020

_________________________________________________________________

New Bletchley. Report No 4. February 2020.

UK DEFENCE PRIORITIES

Ideas presented by a unique panel of former ministers, former senior government officials, and military and strategic advisers.

Held on 28th January 2020 in the Churchill War Rooms, London

Introduction:

This was an apolitical gathering held in private in order to facilitate a candid discussion. The panel included former ministers, a former chief of defence and single service chiefs, a former commander of joint forces command, a former chief of defence intelligence, senior defence industry and defence transformation figures, a distinguished former US senior commander, a senior media editor, a senior think tanker, and an eminent academic.

Key Findings:

• We live in the best of times. We have a higher chance of enjoying longer, healthier lives than any of our ancestors. This is a precarious situation because we are also entering an era of strategic confrontation which could herald the next great power conflict whether by accident or by design.
• In this era, the UK needs urgently to find a new role for itself in the world. If the UK is to seek to shape and influence global politics and political landscapes, it needs to have a clear set of objectives and an endgame. But before we even begin to attempt to articulate that vision, it is vital that we make the case for international engagement. The UK is not mandated to shape the world, and nor is it self-evident that we should. A national conversation about this role is needed.
• If such a case is made successfully, then the most obvious role for the UK is as a broker and mediator on the international stage. We could punch well above our weight by focusing on two fraying relationships. First, we could take the lead on revitalising NATO which is in danger of relinquishing its huge aggregate advantage and becoming a training alliance alone. We also need to find ways to reinvigorate our own relationship with the US, our most important security ally.

This will require specific efforts:

• Changes to Machinery of Government for instance by establishing Centres of Excellence on key capabilities, such as drones or Artificial Intelligence.
  
• More agile and innovative defence procurement to ensure we have the capabilities for the wars of the future.
  
• More active communications from the Ministry of Defence, to ensure we build effective counter-narratives against foreign information warfare. 
  
• Increased investment of financial and political capital in space.
  
• Improved intelligence on shifts in the defence industrial complex for policymakers.
  
• Funding to support algorithmic tools to support improved defence decision-making.
  
• The UK needs to take a lead in supporting the development of the next generation of weapons treaties.
  
• We need to refresh our thinking on deterrence as a core element in UK doctrine, and to ensure it is suitable for the landscape of the Information Age.
  
• As a Global Maritime nation, we need to show international leadership on the sea, promoting norms and values around it, but also showing ourselves to be responsible for the sea. 
  
• Explore the use of ODA funds to develop Civil Contingencies capabilities. 
  
• Find ways of building national resilience, especially in young people, as part of a national effort to ensure societal resilience to threats.
  
• We need to understand and mitigate the negative effects of war and conflict and peacetime military activity on our environment. 

Panellists

• Chair: Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman  - Emeritus Professor of War Studies, Kings’ College London.
  
• Elisabeth Braw  - Senior Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute.
  
• Graham Cole  - former Chairman Westland Helicopters and member of the Ministerial Aerospace Committee.
  
• Philip Dunne MP  - former Minister of State for Defence Procurement.
  
• General Sir Chris Deverell  - former Commander Joint Forces Command.
  
• John Dowdy  - Defence Transformation and Senior Partner McKinsey.
  
• Tobias Ellwood MP  - former minister in FCO and MOD, former soldier.
  
• Lucy Fisher  - Defence Editor, The Times.
  
• Lieutenant General Sir Rob Fry  - former Commandant General of the Royal Marines and MOD Director of Operations.
  
• Lord Nicholas Houghton  - former Chief of Defence.
  
• Air Marshall Phil Osborn  - former Chief of Defence Intelligence.
  
• Admiral Sir Philip Jones  - former First Sea Lord.
  
• Penny Mordaunt MP  - former International Development and Defence Secretary, current Royal Navy reservist.
  
• Admiral Mike Rogers  - US Navy, former Commander US Cyber Command, former Director of the National Security Agency.

In attendance:

• Nigel Hall  - New Bletchley Network.
  
• Paddy Nicoll  - New Bletchley Network.
  
• Pete Quentin  - Chief of Staff to Lord Hague
  
• Dr Benedict Wilkinson -  Associate Director Policy Institute King’s College London.
  

BIG IDEAS:

The best of times could become the worst of times

In many regards, we live in the best of times. Life expectancy is at an all time high; conflicts are fewer and smaller. We have every chance of enjoying quality of life for longer than any of our ancestors. And yet, there is also a precariousness to this: the best of times could easily become the worst of times. 

The era of strategic confrontation

The landscape of global security has shifted. A high impact, low probability confrontation between great powers is now more likely than at any point since the Cold War. But equally there is a proliferation in sub-threshold events – those activities that fall beneath the threshold of war, but test the limits of what a state is willing to endure. These are connected: a miscalculation or escalation arising from sub-threshold could provoke a great power confrontation. Such a confrontation would not only involve the use of old capabilities that have been refined to be more lethal and more threatening than ever before, but also new capabilities that will fundamentally change how such a conflict might be fought.

The role of Britain in the world

In this changing, volatile world, the UK urgently needs to adapt and to find a role it can play. This is a once in a generation opportunity to reshape our role on the world stage. For the last five years, we have experienced deep uncertainty; but we now have clarity about a series of crucial decisions (Brexit, 5G, Space). We must use this opportunity to establish what Britain’s role in the world will be, and to ensure that we deploy all levers of power at our command to achieve our objectives and ambitions. This will mean and revitalising a set of alliances and partnerships that may have been overlooked or forgotten. It may mean establishing what role the UK can play with a less engaged US. Most importantly, it will mean deciding on an endgame and acquiring the capabilities to deliver that. 

The case for international involvement is not self-evident

We need to make the case for involvement in international affairs to the British public. It is not a ‘done deal’, and it is not self-evident. This will require honesty, and a clear message to the public about what the UK is capable of, and where the weaknesses are.

The UK can be a mediator and broker

But, the UK is not powerless: we have a role as mediator and broker, as the nation who ensures alliances stay together. The UK, for instance, has a role to play in revitalising NATO. The aggregate advantage of NATO is huge, but much of it is wasted. The perception of NATO in our adversaries is that it is a training alliance, rather than a military alliance based on the principal of collective defence.

The US is our indispensable security ally

Technology has the power to splinter us from our most important ally, the US. If we are to adopt and fulfil a role as a broker and mediator on the world stage, we need to underpin that role by revitalising our relationship with the US. Recent choices relating to technology have strained the relationship at a time when the US is already cautious of commitments internationally. 

Changes to Machinery of Government

Reconfiguring our role on the world stage will need changes to the machinery of government that can establish and deliver upon that vision. The forthcoming Integrated Review is an opportunity to announce some of these changes, for instance, through establishing Centres of Excellence on key capabilities such as drones and AI in Whitehall to ensure and underpin coordinated pan-Government approaches. However, it is also an opportunity to trial new architecture in conducting the review itself.

More agile and innovative defence procurement 

Defence spending can be inefficient in both its process and in the capabilities it produces. Current procurement trends reflect an industrial age, rather than the information age in which we live, and these capabilities may well not be suitable to fight the wars of the future. UK defence expenditure therefore needs to be more innovative; to achieve this, the MoD needs new structures. This would involve setting up teams within the MoD of professional contractors and with significant budgets for leading law firms; it would also need mechanisms for bringing specialists into the MoD structures more quickly. To ensure wider innovation and productivity gains, we could establish A National Security Advanced Research Project Centre. This would be similar to DARPA with the staff, structure and space to make the kind of choices about defence procurement that lead to innovation, economic growth and wider industrial and commercial spin outs. To achieve this, we need a new National Defence Technology Strategy; this should take an Information Age approach to defence procurement, rather than the Industrial Age approach we are currently taking. 

MoD Communications

Ministry of Defence communications are too passive and reactive. They need to be more forward looking and proactive if they are to secure and maintain critical public support in the Information Age when competing malign narratives will proliferate. This includes being honest with the British people; the public need to understand what our strengths and weaknesses are; we need to be straight with them about where we are confident of being able to provide security and where we are less confident.  

Investment in Space

We need more investment in space. The wars of the present rely heavily on technology in space, and space will be an increasingly important aspect of future conflicts. Our adversaries are investing in space far more than we are, and we need to avoid being left behind.

Mergers and acquisitions in the Defence Sector

Mergers and acquisitions in the defence sector need more careful and considered Government responses; to do this, Ministers need more intelligence on the critical and significant shifts in the defence industrial landscape, particularly relating to mergers and acquisitions. These need to be circulated to ministers in a timely way; the implications of these mergers and acquisitions need more careful, and considered government responses.

Towards an algorithmic decisions tool

We need to invest funding in the development of an analytical decision support tool, to ensure that evidence and data from the widest variety of sources are factored into decisions about defence. In this, data is an important input, but it needs to be layered with automated and human-led analysis in order to ensure adequate decision-making support.

The next generation of weapons treaties

Many of the old generation of weapons treaties (e.g. INF, New Start) are beginning to (or have) failed. The UK has a role to play in building consensus around the next generation of weapons treaties on emerging technologies such as Killer Robots, as well as old weapons Chemical Weapons.

New thinking on Deterrence as a UK Doctrine

Deterrence is at the heart of the UK’s approach, but as a doctrine it has not had been updated with serious consideration to apply to contemporary threats and capabilities. Doubtless, the core principals will be suitable for the contemporary world, but the UK needs to consider how it will operationalise these in newer domains such as cyber and information warfare.

A global maritime nation

The UK is an island nation and the seas that surround us are connected with the seas that cover the globe. We are therefore a global maritime nation and this means we do not simply understand the importance of the sea and its wider global context. It also means we need to make sure we engage with others who use the sea, that we promote norms and values, and are recognised as a responsible stakeholder for it.

Freedom of Navigation in the Gulf and beyond: what role for the UK?

Chinese action in the South China Seas has severely tested the Rules-Based International System. The UK needs to establish whether we stand alongside key strategic partners in the region (FPDA, India, ROK, Vietnam, 5 Eyes), or whether we backfill elsewhere in the Gulf.

Civil Contingencies

We need to make sure that we make more of what we have got. For instance, international aid rules do not prohibit the use of ODA funds to support development of Civil Contingencies (floating research and command facilities, hospital ships). 

National Resilience

We cannot defend against all threats. We must focus on building resilience across communities and particularly in young people, as part of a national effort to ensure societal resilience to potential threats.

Climate Change and Conflict Prevention

We do not fully understand the effects of conflict and peacetime military activity on the climate or on the environment. We need to establish ways for measuring this, and to ensure that this features in strategies to prevent conflict and safeguard the environment.

The Ministry of Defence needs to be clearer with industry

There have long been mixed messages emanating from the MoD about its intentions and desires for the UK’s domestic defence industry. This lack of clarity is bad for industry and bad for national security. The MoD needs to develop a clear and long-term ambition for the UK’s domestic defence industry and to incentivise this through its procurement structures. One way to achieve this would be for Government to develop a “Buy British Act”, as other nations have done, to grow the national Defence Technological and Industrial Base. Equally a promise to publicly report defence decisions that lead to procurement outside the UK.

Human intervention during lethal unmanned operations

As unmanned and autonomous technologies will continue to deliver unparalleled persistence and precision our values demand assured human oversight, understanding, and control.

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy

The conveners of the meeting were Nigel Hall, designer and project leader of the Churchill 2015 21st Century Global Leadership Programme, and Paddy Nicoll , Trustee at the Invictus Games and the HALO Trust.

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher Britain’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• Government and public bodies are too slow moving,
  
• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.

Nigel Hall and Paddy Nicoll

February 2020

Report Lead Author: Dr Benedict Wilkinson , Associate Director Policy Institute King’s College London and Academic Adviser.

©️NewBletchley February 2020

_________________________________________________________________

New Bletchley. Report No 3. July 2019.

UK FOREIGN, DEFENCE AND AID POLICIES (in the age of Putin, Xi,Trump and Brexit)

Ideas presented by a unique panel of former cabinet ministers, former senior government officials, and military and strategic advisers

Held on 17 July 2019 in the Churchill War Rooms, London

Introduction:

This was an apolitical gathering held in private in order to facilitate a candid discussion. The panel included a former secretary general of NATO, a former foreign and two former defence secretaries, a former national security adviser, a former chief of defence, a former commander of joint forces command, a former head of the security service, a former UK permanent representative to NATO, think-tankers/former strategic advisers, including those who had held senior positions in NATO and in the US state and defence departments, and a senior television journalist and academic.

Key Findings:

• British foreign and security policy is in urgent need of a reboot.
  
• We have a real opportunity and necessity - perhaps the first time since World War 2 - to radically reformulate our foreign and security policy and to interrogate our identity as a nation.
  
• The multiple and increasing risks to our security and stability and the velocity of change in science and technology drive this requirement. Climate change is a rapidly emerging emergency.
  
• Brexit provides the opportunity for this fundamental reassessment but it is not the key driver.
  
• We need a National Strategy Commission, not just an in-house highly classified Whitehall review.
  
• Only a genuinely collaborative effort involving unprecedented public consultation can reinvigorate and resuscitate our foreign and security policy now when it is most needed. It will also enable us to cope with the huge variety of challenges that are emerging.
  
• War, conflict, and hybrid warfare in the Information Age mean that difficult choices will have to be made. We cannot do everything and must not spread ourself too thinly.
  
• We need to be bold, and must sharpen-up our science, technology and innovation-driven decision making capacity.
  
• We must become and remain a Tier 1 cyber power, and establish a national cyber force.
  
• We can no longer rely on the ‘special relationship’, nor on Europe, but we can add considerable value to a next stage new rules based order through our unique relationships and respected convening powers.
  
• We must protect and nurture our close security partnership with the USA and energetically seek to enhance and modernise NATO as the central pillar of our collective security.
  
• We must assist Europe increase its foreign and defence roles and capabilities and build a vibrant EU+1 pillar that enhances collective European capabilities, reducing the onus on the US and allowing it to focus elsewhere.
  

Panellists:

• Chair .  Lord George Robertson .  Former NATO Secretary General and Defence Secretary.
  
• General Sir Chris Deverell. Former Commander Joint Forces Command
  
• Chris Donnelly. Institute of Statecraft and former strategic adviser to NATO.
  
• Nik Gowing. Television journalist and member of the council of RUSI.
  
• Baroness Denise Kingsmill. Former deputy chair Competition Commission and former chair of Monzo Bank.
  
• Baroness Eliza Manningham-Buller. Former Head of the Security Service (MI5).
  
• Lord David Richards. Former Chief of Defence.
  
• Lord Peter Ricketts. Former National Security Adviser and Permanent Secretary in the FCO.
  
• Sir Malcolm Rifkind. Former Foreign and Defence Secretary and Chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee.
  
• Dr Kori Schake.  Deputy Director General IISS, former senior roles in the US NSC and state and defence departments.
  
• Sir Adam Thomson. Former senior diplomat and UK Permanent Representative to NATO.
  
• Xenia Wickett.   Former director US Project and dean of leadership academy, Chatham House and former senior roles in the US NSC and state department.
  
• Dr Benedict Wilkinson. Associate director Policy Institute, King’s College London.
  

In attendance:

• Nigel Hall. New Bletchley Network.
  
• Paddy Nicoll.   New Bletchley Network.
  

BIG IDEAS:

National Strategy Commission 

British foreign and security policy is in urgent need of a reboot; if ever there was a time to think strategically it is now; we have a real opportunity and necessity - perhaps the first time since World War 2 - to radically reformulate our foreign and security policy and to interrogate our identity as a nation; the multiple and increasing risks to our security and stability and the velocity of change in science and technology drive this requirement; Brexit provides the opportunity for this fundamental reassessment but it is not the key driver; we need a national strategy commission, not just an in-house highly classified Whitehall review; we must get ahead of the curve in adjusting from Industrial Age to Information Age warfare.

Unprecedented Public Engagement and Consultation

A genuinely collaborative effort involving unprecedented public consultation can reinvigorate and resuscitate our foreign and security policy now when it is most needed; it will also enable us to cope with the huge variety of challenges that are emerging; the world is a much more dangerous place than we are telling the public; we can no longer separate overseas and domestic policies – eg climate change; need to mobilise civil society; greater public buy-in is key to healing some of our divisions and bolstering national cohesion which is our centre of gravity; we must stand up for the liberal order and claw back public confidence in it.

Pace of Change, Multiple Risks & Climate Change

‘The pace of change has never been faster and will never be as slow again’; across international and domestic politics the risks and challenges are increasing rapidly, combined with unprecedented scientific and technological innovation and societal changes this threatens domestic and international stability; Washington, too, actively practices disruption; need to start recalibrating some of the international and security debate towards existential crises and survival; climate change is a rapidly emerging emergency; most of the population growth is in the middle of the world where climate change is most advanced, and it is also closer to China; we have yet to fully accept the centre of gravity shift which for so long was Europe.

We cannot do everything and must not spread ourself too thinly

War, conflict, and hybrid warfare in this information age mean that difficult choices will have to be made; we need to be bold, and must sharpen-up our science, technology and innovation-driven decision making capacity; our level of ambition must be in line with our capabilities and capacity; we must reassess where and how we can collaborate more effectively – especially within Europe; mass is beginning to matter again, we need to increase defence and security spending and especially on the Diplomatic Service; we need more maritime assets – the Royal Navy has been cut too far; we need to be realistic about our power projection ambitions – we should prioritise and focus and not spread ourself too thinly; eg carrier group deployments to the Pacific and China Seas would be a distraction from higher priorities, and risk misplacing high value assets at the wrong time. Our role might be to backfill to allow the US to focus on the Asia/Pacific.

We must become and remain a Tier 1 Cyber Power

We must build on our cyber strengths and best practice and take a quantum leap forward; this will require significant investment; we must establish a national cyber force, and we must become and remain a Tier 1 cyber power; offensive cyber might sound aggressive but it can prevent war and save lives; this is an area where we have exemplar and convening leverage; it is an ‘all domains, all sectors of the economy’ priority – not limited to just defence and security, and organised and serious crime areas.

A new next-stage rules-based order

We must invest more effort into the major multinational institutions and get more of our people into key positions; we have to make the case for a new next-stage rules-based order that can deliver in an increasingly multipolar and anarchic world; we need to explain the value of those institutions that are vital to our core values – freedom, democracy, rule of law - and rebut the naysayers; we should focus on adding real value and using our convening power in the areas where we are respected exemplars and leaders – including in new areas - eg environment, cyber, aid delivery, whole of government and fusion strategy - in addition to defence and intelligence; in defence of our institutions and values, the regulators need more clout; we may need a next-stage treaty of Westphalia/Congress of Vienna reset of the rules-based order which will be difficult and take many years; it will be harder for the US to manage relative decline than it was for Britain.

The USA and NATO

We can no longer rely on the ‘special relationship’, but we must protect and nurture our close security partnership with the USA – it is the most critical partnership in an increasingly dangerous world; we must energetically seek to enhance and modernise NATO as the central pillar of our collective security; we should support efforts to enhance European roles and capabilities, reducing the onus on the US in Europe, and allowing it to focus elsewhere; we could suggest NATO – the world’s premier alliance - having a role in Asian security.

Europe

It is essential that we continue to develop a strong and healthy international and security relationship with our European allies; we must go out of our way to demonstrate that, whatever the Brexit outcome, we remain thoroughly engaged; we should very actively encourage our European allies to increase their foreign and defence roles and capabilities and together build a vibrant EU+1 pillar that enhances collective European capabilities; we have a clear leadership role in helping to improve the European-US strategic partnership; we must work closely with European allies and develop the right strategic and tactical responses to Chinese expansionism now that Central Asia is no longer the physical barrier that it was.

Commonwealth

We must not overlook the Commonwealth and, in particular, our Commonwealth links to African countries – Africa is leading some very important changes, and in both population and natural resources Africa has the long-term potential to compete with China.

Scale of the Problem

There is a degree of panic in the air and a significant loss of confidence in the ability of our established leadership structures and political process to rise to the occasion; we live in a double bubble here (London and Westminster) and might be ‘fiddling whilst Rome burns’ - we need to look at the way many are living and understand their struggles and discontents; we must stem rising anger and divisions – including between generations; our capitalist and democratic systems are under challenge and must be defended and modernised; in a very unstable world we can no longer take our own stability for granted; populism is ‘push-backism’ – radicalisation against a system that is not delivering; many people are alienated by the big corporates; the speed of change is now akin to that experienced previously in wartime; our current ‘peacetime’ leadership and processes and procedures must adapt if they are to cope; we must overcome the curse of conformity and risk aversion; we are witnessing a reformation moment and moving towards the counter reformation and new equilibrium; history has been a story of 6 steps forward and 4 steps back.

Government Spending

Notwithstanding trends on health, welfare and social care as a proportion of government spending, more resources have to be made available for diplomacy, defence and security in an increasingly complex and dangerous world. It cannot be right that the FCO budget is one seventh of the aid budget; ‘diplomacy without arms is like music without instruments’.

Climate Change Emergency

Governments cannot cope on their own; population, global economy, and emissions growth trends require an ‘all hands’ response and the private sector, civil society and personal responsibility must come to the rescue.

Leadership and Public Sector Innovation

Leadership capacity at all levels has to improve to be able to handle the phenomenal rate of change and disruption; the conformity required to get to the top today is too often a block to seeing and understanding things as they really are; government structures and processes, too, have to adapt much more rapidly; good strategy is important, but first, and even more important, are the right policies; there are some bright spots but overall our public service design and innovation is not fast enough; we are being overtaken by competitors and need to further sharpen the culture to further open up thought diversity and risk appetite (not even mentioned in recent industrial strategy); we need public banks and long-term patient finance.

Weapons in Space

We must seek to prevent the use of weapons in space – they are an existential and very destabilising risk; we should push hard for an international treaty outlawing their use.

Savvy Challenging of China

We need to be smarter in the way we challenge China – including akin to the US Beijing embassy air quality data tweets, which triggered profound change in China’s environmental policy; we barely have begun to understand the enormity of the implications of the ‘Belt and Road’ physical joining of China and Europe.

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy:

The conveners of the meeting were Nigel Hall, designer and project leader of the Churchill 2015 21st Century Global Leadership Programme, and Paddy Nicoll, Trustee at the Invictus Games and HALO Trusts.

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher Britain’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• Government and public bodies are too slow moving,
  
• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.

Nigel Hall and Paddy Nicoll

July 2019

©️NewBletchley July 2019

__________________________________________________________________

New Bletchley. Report No 2. March 2019.

KNIFE CRIME, Effective strategies and coordination

Ideas presented to New Bletchley by a unique panel from across the spectrum addressing youth violence and knife crime

Held in London on 7th March, 2019

Introduction:

This private discussion harvested ideas from a special and diverse team of knowledgeable people in order to help our government and society at this critical time.

A further motive was that if ever there was a time for engaged citizens to contribute constructively to improve public square debate, surely it is now. This was the second in a series of New Bletchley events that will cover the most important issues of the day.

This was a completely apolitical gathering held in a neutral forum in private. The round-table discussion included 3 former gang members, a former Glasgow chief inspector, a former London borough commander, a bereaved mother, a head teacher, a professor in youth crime, a youth clinical psychologist, a youth worker, and 2 community pastors.

Key findings:

• Need for a clear, collaborative national strategy
• The government must treat youth violence/knife crime as a national crisis, and stay with it for the long term
• Solutions should be community, not police, led and must not be undermined by party politics
• The key to prevention is early education of youth, parents, grandparents, teachers, role models, and front line, youth service, charity personnel and others
• We must consult and empower our youth and involve them directly in the design and implementation phases of anunprecedented youth violence prevention and reduction campaign

Panellists:

• Chair. Paddy Nicoll - New Bletchley Network
  
• Pastor Tobi Adegboyega - SPAC Nation Church & Foundations leading & mentoring 100s of young.
  
• Clare Coghill - Leader Waltham Forest Council (unable to attend in person on the day, recommendations included).
  
• Joan Deslandes - Headteacher, Kingsford Community School.
  
• Graham Goulden - Former Chief Inspector, Glasgow Violence Reduction Unit.
  
• Everol Halliburton - TBAP Trust, Intervention and School Services, lead for safeguarding & welfare (unable to attend in person on the day, recommendations included) .
  
• Dr Simon Harding - Professor of Criminology, University of West London (gangs and youth crime, regional crime advisor).
  
• Dr Charlie Howard - Clinical Psychologist who thinks we’ve stopped listening to young people.
  
• Sally Knox - Anti-knife campaigner, her son Rob was stabbed and killed in May 2008.
  
• Jermaine Lawlor - Ex gang member, Voice4YouthAgainstViolence (youth services, training, mentoring).
  
• Oluwatosin Sowemimo - Youth caseworker who believes young people should be shared the power to create the change.
  
• John Sutherland - Retired Met police officer (borough commander & author).
  
• Sheldon Thomas - Consultant on gangs and serious youth violence, Gangsline.
  
• Rev Nims Ubunge - Chief Executive Peace Alliance, Knife & Violent Crime Prevention Group.

IDEAS

Pastor Tobi Adegboyega. SPAC Nation Church & Foundations leading & mentoring 100s of young.

A1. Front line organisations tackling knife crime must demonstrate effectiveness

Too many organisations are not connecting with the right people, they are not getting those at the centre of the crisis through the door and demonstrating substantial results centred on lifestyle changes (since 2016 SPAC Nation have helped 3000 young people change their lives); be more rigorous and results-focused with public funding and donations.

A2. The new improved form of youth centre - “Community Units”

Bringing people into a hub where you can create an alternative family; these community units are led by people of a similar age to the majority of individuals involved in knife and gun crime thereby increasing the ability to connect; these role model leaders do not work 9-5, they have given their entire lives and committed themselves and their finances to help their peers change their lives; getting houses that can accommodate 10s of young people under their care; identifying those young people in danger who need to be relocated to an alternative community unit in a different borough.

A3. Get the money to where it is needed

Changing lives rather than on overhead costs!

Clare Coghill. Leader Waltham Forest Council.

B1. Schools retaining responsibility for the performance/attendance of children they exclude

Excluded children are ten times more likely to suffer mental health problems, are more likely to be unemployed, and are more likely to go to prison. Mainstream schools could support programmes such as ‘The Difference’ outlined in this IPPR report to break the link between school exclusion and youth violence: https://www.ippr.org/files/2017- 10/making-the-difference-report-october-2017.pdf

B2. Nothing stops a bullet (or a knife) like a job (or continuing in mainstream education)

That was Glasgow’s USP: this relates to the above point, and would involve tailored Education Training and Employment provision, capitalising on the business acumen of many gang involved young people, taking them out of their environment and expanding their horizons, introducing them to business role models, and not just in the music industry.

B3. Significant investment in bereavement support or counselling. If victimised (trauma informed, evidence-based): our evidence shows that children who perpetrate harm have almost always been harmed first. Our data shows that young people have experienced 4 principle adverse childhood experiences, including bereavement. CAMHS thresholds are so high that we cannot access provision for that early harm. So the intervention would be community-based talking therapy for those bereaved, threatened or victimised.

Joan Deslandes. Headteacher, Kingsford Community School (3 knife murders, wrong place wrong time)

C1. A national coordinated strategy

To reduce knife crime, based on research evidence of what works, that will include the key partners of education, mental health services, police, drug rehabilitation services, parents and young people, local authority and community forums – (only putting more police on the streets will not address the core factors that trigger these problems. The police must work with community forums, children’s mental health services and parents via a grassroots movement for change.)

C2. Greater focus and action to address the impact that trauma has on the behaviour of young people

Particularly those who have witnessed o r suffered from racism and/or domestic violence.

C3. Curriculum diversification in schools

To enable pupils who are disengaged from the current national curriculum and GCSE specifications (which ignore the existence, skills and abilities of many of those pupils who are disengaged). This will allow these pupils to buy into a system that they feel includes them and is seeking to prepare them to be effective contributing citizens whose existence, skills and abilities are valued by British society.

Graham Goulden. Former Chief Inspector, Glasgow Violence Reduction Unit.

D1. A long-term strategy which seeks to (i) contain and manage current levels of violence, (ii) that looks at primary, secondary and tertiary forms of prevention and (iii) that seeks to build effective partnership that share the violence reduction agenda to help shift/confirm societal norms around violence

Violence prevention requires many different organisations and systems to work together under a shared agenda; having an over-arching strategy and a consistent narrative allows everyone involved to focus on their roles to support delivery; a public health focus looks at the impact of relationships, community and society on an individual and supports the prevention agenda; primary prevention – before victimisation and perpetration of violence; secondary prevention – a focus on those at risk of perpetration and victimisation; tertiary prevention – a focus on the offender and the victim, and treating them as the same person as opposed to different people.

D2. A focus on gender

Most violence is committed by men, most victims of violence are men, sexual/domestic violence victims are mostly girls and women, the perpetrators are mostly men; provides a role for men in prevention of violence as the solution; there will never be peace on our streets until we have peace in the home; domestic abuse is often the back-story to many violent offenders; children don’t just witness abuse they experience it; domestic abuse is a recognised Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE); many offenders in prison bring with them a biography of masculinity with violence being the tool of their masculinity; a focus on domestic abuse will help break the cycle and support victims and young children at risk of ACEs; talking to men in a positive role allows them to see a role in prevention; discussions around fatherhood further present opportunities to develop men as role-models to their sons.

D3. A focus on engaging and empowering communities

Prevention starts in the community, communities are scared, communities experience and witness violence, communities need knowledge and tools, supports use of pro-social norms that exist within communities, provides a medium to discuss a long-term violence prevention plan that may be contrary to how communities see prevention; empowering communities to spot ‘red flags’ in behaviours of others will support prevention; bystanders witness violence and often spot the lead up to violence; a need to move from simply expecting people to act to giving them tools and options to more safely intervene; involve community in the narrative of prevention and help them understand the focus of the strategy; a consistent narrative around early years adversity will help communities see beyond the behaviour; it is clear there is fear in communities across London; the showing of knives recovered via social media is known to actually increase fear; set the norms you want people to follow.

Everol Halliburton. TBAP Trust (Intervention and School Services), lead for safeguarding & welfare.

E1. Undo the years of austerity cuts which have directly affected our ability to tackle knife crime

Provide significantly more funding for schools to work in partnership with external agencies; co-locate services within schools - as a preventative/early help measure; the limited focus today is mainly reactive and post incident; priority services include health education, children’s services, police, youth offending, and CAMHS.

E2. Drill music crackdown

“Fails to address the root causes of youth violence” – this is correct, but given its role in causing harm, censorship should be supported, along with sanctions on those who are knowlingly producing and promoting songs and lyrics which incite violence; encourage positive music workshops including with the music and entertainment industry professionals and role models.

E3. Research and develop a more comprehensive understanding of the factors related to why young people become involved in knife crime

Analyse the effects of austerity on youth provision, school exclusion, families, disaffection; consider the drivers of deprivation and isolation; this comprehensive analysis will likely reinforce the case for a public health crime prevention response.

Dr Simon Harding. Professor of Criminology, University of West London (gangs and youth crime, regional crime advisor).

F1. Tackle drug supply and reduce demand

Need a Royal Commission to look into Drugs and make recommendations about de-criminalisation; fully support local drug misuers at the local level - their support services have been hugely reduced to almost nothing; more accessible services for drug users including mental health and medical services which will help reduce the overall demand for drugs.

F2. Reinstate Community Safety profession

Partnership working remains a statutory duty since 1998 though this is much forgotten and overlooked; government have allowed it to wither; police and council staff have forgotten how to do partnership working; need a complete overhaul of the national community arrangements with stronger links to youth and to local agencies and communities with clear funding, oversight and accountability arrangements; the information- sharing arrangements which support this are now threadbare; people are too scared of DPA and GDPR; this renewed network should lead to the reduction of violence nationally in which the police only play a part but do not lead.

F3. Capacity build pupils at school relationships and crime

Need to capacity-build school children and teach and train them and their parents about knife crime, gangs and violence; this must become a statutory element of school curriculum; school exclusions should also be reduced to avoid sending students out of school or into PRUs; fix the bullying policies.

Jermaine Lawlor. Ex gang member, Voice4YouthAgainstViolence (youth services, training, mentoring)

G1. Education and early intervention

There are many kids at school who have family gang members in prison, these kids need special attention and early intervention; otherwise there is a real risk of this becoming an embedded culture; young mentors and positive role models; teaching life skills including money management, peer pressure, business ethics; effective alternative education provision; more educational pathways with good job opportunities.

G2. More support for family breakdowns

A broken home scenario – single parent, on benefits, struggling to get food and school supplies, food banks... – fuels the risk of kids being drawn to building credibility and self-worth on the streets using violence.

G3. Be proactive!

Lost count of number of good meetings I have attended over recent years; we know what works, we just need to do it! What is going to be different this time? Stabbing is becoming normalised.

Sheldon Thomas. Consultant on gangs and serious youth violence, Gangsline.

H1. Parents need to take more responsibility

Gang members are using social media to fill the void left by either busy or absent parents (normally the dad), using YouTube, Snapchat, and Facebook to promote their gang, the gangster lifestyle of quick riches from selling drugs and using degrading lyrics to degrade girls; mothers spend on average one hour per day with their children, fathers on average 34 minutes with their children, teenagers aged 13-25 spent average 9 hours day on social media, whilst children aged 8-12 spent on average 6 hours per day on social media; so, effectively gangs through social media are parenting our children; we need a nation-wide message of how parents need to know who their childrens’ friends are, know the password to their phone and their social media accounts, so that they can keep a close eye on who they are talking to and the kind of people their children are engaging with online; all parents of Year 5 and above children must attend gangs prevention workshop whose facilitators are former gang members.

H2. The government need to have a real vision for children

Especially around raising the aspirations of impoverished whites who suffer discrimination and black and ethnic groups who suffer institutional racism from government agencies, businesses, and retail companies; if poor whites and blacks cannot see themselves in society or starting at the bottom of a company and given real opportunities to get to top, then the pull of the gangs becomes for some a real option as gang members do not discriminate, they will employ anyone; we need to change the school curriculum and have more skill centres where young people can learn trades; all apprenticeships need to come with a guarantee of 2 years employment, pay should start at £10 per hour plus travel expense to encourage more young people to avoid the lure of countylines - £4 an hour is not an incentive for today’s young people.

H3. Get the message out there!

All frontline professionals: the police, NHS, mental health, local authority agencies, staff from children’s homes, foster carers, youth clubs and prison staff, should be given gangs training on gangs, grooming, countylines, CSE and serious youth violence should be posted through every letter box in the UK.

Sally Knox. Anti-knife campaigner, her son Rob was stabbed and killed in May 2008.

I1. Compulsory knife crime & gang awareness

All schools in year 6; consequences of carry knives – risk & punishment; staying safe - avoiding mixing with knife carriers; where to report knife carriers – responsible adults/Fearless Website; gang awareness – grooming/friendships with older youths/taking presents; forming correct friendships when moving to secondary schools.

I2. Tougher punishment/penalties for carrying a knife

At present you are only charged if you are caught carrying for the second time; carrying a knife to mean a custodial sentence in line with gun carrying; extending stop & search powers.

I3. Cohesive approach across multi agencies

Much good work and information collection is being done by charities, youth workers, teachers, police, councils, communities etc, but this is very fragmented – leaders must be appointed to bring all this information together; establish a national database where information can be recorded by all agencies - this will help stop young people going under the radar if moving area, be it for drug related reasons or at families requests.

Combined input from

Oluwatosin Sowemimo. Youth caseworker who believes young people should be shared the power to create the change;

Dr Charlie Howard. Clinical Psychologist who thinks we’ve stopped listening to young people and;

John Sutherland. Retired Met police officer (borough commander & author).

J1. The response must be long-term

Minimum ten years, preferably twenty; urgency – something has to be done now.

J2. It should be based on the Public Health model

Developed in Glasgow and elsewhere.

J3. It must be co-designed and co-delivered by young people

They need to be involved from the verybeginning, not as an afterthought.

J4. It must be operationally independent from political control

Design and delivery must remain neutral from any form of political influence.

J5. Policing should be at the heart of the response, but not at the head

The police should not be in charge of the response, they have an absolutely vital part to play but they represent only one piece of the puzzle.

Rev Nims Ubunge. Chief Executive Peace Alliance, Knife & Violent Crime Prevention Group.

K1. Life Skill Training

Leadership training - empower young people to recognise their leadership potential; self-defense and trauma and first aid training; mental health and finding happiness - including developing resilience that addresses adverse childhood experiences; emotional intelligence – empathy, compassion and how to diffuse tense situations; money management; work experience and shadowing; training and building self-confidence and self-belief.

K2. Incentives and Inspirations

New thinking and power to dream; success can be achieved in many ways other than via entertainment (football and rapping dominate) or illicit means; role models - exposure to a diverse range of successful people, especially from own ethnic and socio-economic background.

K3. Emotional Boot Camp

Training sessions to explore emotional intelligence using a range of measures including a peer to peer SWOT analysis with follow up reviews helps young people to engage with their realities.

Report Author’s Personal Comment

Following many hours of speaking with the panellists and other specialists involved. This single panel session was specifically focused on listening to and discussing the top ideas of an impressive panel of inspiring and knowledgeable front line leaders involved with youth violence and knife crime. They were in no doubt that we face a national crisis that warrants an appropriate national top-down, but community-led, long-term crisis response. Their ideas, many of which overlap, will help those national and community leaders charged with producing and delivering much better responses than those experienced to-date. The big ‘so what?’ questions that this panel session and report prompt are similar to those that Lord Hogan-Howe and others are now asking: where is the top level grip? Who is in charge?

In the preparation for and in the margins of this meeting I have been particularly struck by (1) the top policing expert who told me that he feared that we are at tip of iceberg situation (2) numerous experts pointing to the escalating brutality and desensitisation linked to gang rivalry and (3) the teacher who says increasing numbers of young are so alienated by their appalling domestic situation and future prospects that they don’t care that much about the prospect of losing their lives.

In this writer’s opinion we need to switch to calm crisis mode, and institute an unprecedented very 21st century long and short-term integrated and inter-generational prevention and response campaign. We need someone in charge and accountable – a tsar or commissioner – who reports to a Secretary of State for the Next Generation. This new heavyweight appointment is needed to give the knife crime tsar, the childrens tsar, the suicide tsar, the mental health and all the tsars the support and clout that is so desperately lacking.

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy

The convenors of the meeting were Nigel Hall , designer and project leader of the Churchill 2015 21st Century Global Leadership Programme, and Paddy Nicoll, Trustee at the Invictus Games and the HALO Trust.

The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a proposed 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher Britain’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.

• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.

• Government and public bodies are slow moving,

• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.

• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.

Nigel Hall and Paddy Nicoll

March 2019

©️NewBletchley March 2019

__________________________________________________________________

New Bletchley. Report No 1. November 2018.

HELPING THE HOME OFFICE

Ideas presented by distinguished former ‘insider’ senior offici als and ‘outsider’ stakeholders and challengers at a private discussion about the future of the Home Office

Held in London on 27th November, 2018

Introduction:

The driving purpose behind this private discussion was to harvest the ideas of a special and diverse team of knowledgeable people in order to help the Home Office at this critical time.

A further motive was that if ever there was a time for engaged citizens to contribute constructively to improve public square debate, surely it is now. This was the first in a series of similar events that will be held covering some of the most important issues of the day.

This was a completely apolitical gathering held in a neutral forum in private under strict ‘Chatham House’ rules. Everyone who attended was there in a private capacity.

Contributors:

The contributors comprised distinguished former ‘insider’ senior officials and ‘outsider’ stakeholders and challengers.

BIG IDEAS:

These are presented anonymously, by theme and in random order. Contributors presented three ideas each. The record below summarises the unfettered raw material presented.

A. Data

A1. Train and develop a new generation of Home Office data scientists and data ethics officers, and support the expansion of digital media advisers in police forces.

The Home Office is not good on open data, its still not doing enough to train its data scientists, or to integrate its data to allow forces to do more for wider integration. As per a number of other recommendations, an holistic review of data and digital services is overdue.

A2. Build a national data analytics hub for policing.

Police forces lawfully hold vast quantities of data, yet much of its potential is currently untapped. Most of the 43 forces do not have the capability (technology nor skills) to build an effective data analytics capability. Nor can they easily combine their own data with those of other forces. A national data analytics hub (potentially held by the National Police Operations Coordination Centre) could provide national level insights from data aggregated across all forces and could provide.

A3. Establish a data guardian for law enforcement.

Police forces must work in collaboration with many other agencies to prevent crime and protect the vulnerable. Yet multiple serious case reviews point to failures to share data. New technologies offer opportunities to exploit data to prevent crime, but also raise ethical and legal uncertainties. The data obtained and held by police forces can be as sensitive as that held by health agencies. Therefore, a data guardian for law enforcement, following the health model would ensure both that sensitive personal data is protected and that it is exploited for the greater public good, with appropriate safeguards.

A4: A cross-CJS approach to addressing challenges around volumes of digital data and disclosure using AI/ automation.

Volumes of digital evidence are growing exponentially, with households holding on average eight connected devices and gigabytes of data. This creates vast opportunities for accurate detection of crime but it also poses vast and ever-increasing challenges for all criminal justice agencies. Processing this tsunami of data drives vast costs in terms of processing this information – from police time, to legal costs (fees are based on evidence volumes) and court time. Recent high profile cases of failures to disclose vital evidence to defence (or prosecution) are undermining trust in the system.

The solution to processing such evidence lies in a degree of automation, with algorithms and robotic process automation taking on part of the work of filtering and identifying relevant information – with appropriate human oversight and accountability. However, efforts to address this problem remain piecemeal, insufficient and carried out in different silos of the criminal justice system. They should be brought together to create a whole justice system response that considers the systemic capabilities, processes, cultures and legislation needed to ensure that the benefits of increasing volumes of evidence are not outweighed by huge costs to the taxpayer.

B. Structural Reform/Review

B1. Instigate an enquiry into policing (Royal Commission) to identify public priorities for policing, structure etc.

There has not been such a commission for over 60 years. The challenges to policing have changed considerably, with new offences and a different profile of offending. Crime is now rising and prosecutions or out of court disposals at their lowest for 10 years. Chief constables are declining to investigate offences, with different criteria depending where the crime is committed creating a postcode lottery for victims, risking the alienation of the key supporters of police. On-line sex abuse and similar crimes are not being investigated and notified to police at a rate which would absorb huge resources. Historic enquiries are taking precedence on new offences. Confidence in the police is at risk and an enquiry should review the role and priorities of policing.

B2. Create a “House of Commons” for Police and Crime Commissioners.

Like MPs, PCCs are democratically elected by local people. Unlike MPs, there is currently no national forum in which PCCs can come together and make binding decisions on issues of national importance through majority voting. Creating a “House of Commons” equivalent would enable clearer direction on policing matters which have national, as well as local significance.

B3. Abolish the Commission for Countering Extremism and its commissioner: put these resources into policing.

The counter extremism commission was doomed from the start with the chosen appointment of the commissioner. This has made a large section of society, both people of faith and no faith, to question whether the commission would be unbiased, independent and fair. Prevent should have been included in the remit of the CCE and the implementation of this commission has been a complete farce. It is a talking shop and another echo chamber.

We need real work and results and that only comes from communities, not from a commission who will tell us exactly what we know - that extremism is a threat. The British public want results and do not want any more lives to be lost via violent extremism. The £5.25 million currently allocated to this would be better used to resource the police, recruiting more front line police officers and more community police to patrol our streets and to keep us safe.

B4. Conclude the strategy for policing by Charles Clarke that rationalises territorial police forces down to 10 plus metropolitan forces this being the missing element between local and national.

With an appreciation of the value of local policing, and the progressive development of a national law enforcement capability to coordinate and respond to international and nationally based crime threats, similar clarity and cohesiveness has not been applied to regional policing. Current policing structures at force level in England and Wales are sub- optimal and need rationalisation; through this greater effectiveness and efficiency can be achieved as well as better strategic integration and planning with wider services.

B5. Prevent has failed: we need an urgent independent review.

Mistrust and toxicity has grown with regards to Prevent. It has failed to win over the hearts and minds of the very people it purports to help. It is remote and detached from communities and is not successfully addressing the concerns that are continuously raised across the board. Instead it continues to be an echo chamber, only engaging with those who will toe the line, and fearful of engaging with those who are critical. The strategy needs major reform to allow it to successfully protect vulnerable people against radicalisation.

B6. The Home Office is in disarray: establish a powerful formal review of needs, priorities, structures, and resources.

The way the Windrush scandal was handled was a complete disaster, with the then Home Secretary Amber Rudd forced to resign due to failings from senior civil servants. There are cases of people who are granted leave to stay but are in detention centres, coupled with the fact that there are hundreds of criminals who have slipped through the net. This clearly demonstrates serious reforms need to be undertaken and there has to be transparency.

There are many cases that show the shear incompetence of senior civil servants in the Home Office. These failings along with that of Prevent and the unnecessary creation of the Commission for Countering Extremism highlights that the Home Office is in disarray. We need an effective Home Office which addresses these issues and wins over the confidence of the public but this can only be possible after a formal review of the needs, priorities, structures and resources.

B7. Develop a more flexible workforce model.

In the last 25 years the police service has seen reviews by both Sheehy and Winsor. These failed to prepare for where the service now finds itself. New types of criminality such as bulk fraud and online crime require new skills, as do the increasing public protection and vulnerability issues that arise. Whilst the police service has shown flexibility in responding, the traditional recruitment process and requirement to serve as an omni-competent Constable has not facilitated entry of competent individuals holding different and specialist skills. A more flexible approach would appeal to those from different ethnic backgrounds as well as those with disabilities who could add significantly but would not meet conventional entry requirements.

B8. Develop stronger and more deliberative work at the regional and local level with City Mayors and PCCs moving further from convening to co-commissioning.

This needs to be driven locally and must include working with prisons and probation as well as local authorities, health services and employers. For example, we know that disinvestment in key areas such as substance misuse has a knock on effect on crime. Likewise we know that legitimate employment reduces re-offending. These issues need to be driven and articulated locally.

We have talked about joined up services for decades and the police has shown that it can embrace this, for example with prevalent offenders and young people. But as we talk about the justice system we need to recognise that at present this does not exist nationally or locally and this needs to change. A Home Office fit for the 21st century needs to fund the police effectively, articulate a clear vision of 'whole justice' and approach reform as a collaborative and cross sector endeavour, nationally, regionally and locally.

B9. Re-visit police restructuring to reduce number of police forces to increase size, capability and reduce cost.

Several police forces are too small to be able to offer the full range of necessary capability. Whilst some innovative operational collaborations have been negotiated, this remains suboptimal. Combatting organized crime, delivering high tech services to tackle on-line pedophilia and other similar crimes, and investigating complex criminality requires is beyond the capability of the current police forces. Re-structuring of the Service into strategic forces with the necessary operational units, reduced management on costs whilst retaining and strengthening local core policing would deliver the expertise required for 21st Century policing.

C. Cross-department/more joined-up approaches.

C1/A4 (A&C themes): A cross-CJS approach to addressing challenges around volumes of digital data and disclosure using AI/ automation. 

Volumes of digital evidence are growing exponentially, with households holding on average eight connected devices and gigabytes of data. This creates vast opportunities for accurate detection of crime but it also poses vast and ever-increasing challenges for all criminal justice agencies. Processing this tsunami of data drives vast costs in terms of processing this information – from police time, to legal costs (fees are based on evidence volumes) and court time. Recent high profile cases of failures to disclose vital evidence to defence (or prosecution) are undermining trust in the system.

The solution to processing such evidence lies in a degree of automation, with algorithms and robotic process automation taking on part of the work of filtering and identifying relevant information – with appropriate human oversight and accountability. However, efforts to address this problem remain piecemeal, insufficient and carried out in different silos of the criminal justice system. They should be brought together to create a whole justice system response that considers the systemic capabilities, processes, cultures and legislation needed to ensure that the benefits of increasing volumes of evidence are not outweighed by huge costs to the taxpayer.

C2. Bringing together at a high level the Home Office, Ministry of Justice, Department of Health, Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government and Her Majesty’s Treasury with a focus on future trends, crime prevention and reducing reoffending.

The MOJ is currently doing some thinking about Justice 2030 but this does not include consideration of courts, the CPS or policing. Such an approach needs to be able to articulate a much clearer vision for justice services and is important in framing changes at the local and regional level.

C3. Create a structured mechanism for the Home Office regular dialogue and early warning systems with local government and civil society, via the Local Government Association and the National Council for Voluntary Organisations.

The migration function of the Home Office has historically consisted of policing an external border and processing applications. It lacks the institutional relationships of local government and civil society (in England) that typically characterise other domestic departments, like the Department for Education or Department of Health and Social Care. This means it can lack on-the-ground intelligence and constructive engagement from stakeholders on how its policies and services affect newly arrived migrants, asylum seekers and those seeking settled status or citizenship. The Windrush scandal is an example of the catastrophic failure that can result not just from a policy choice, but how that policy is implemented and experienced. A structured institutional setting for engagement between the Home Office and English local government and civil society would be one mechanism for addressing this (separate arrangements exist for the devolved administrations).

C4. Press for a cross-departmental review children/young people at risk in the forthcoming strategic review, and develop plans for a funded expansion of public health crime prevention.

The next spending review (SR2019) will be a critical one for the Home Office. It needs to make the case for real term increases in police resources. But it also needs to work across Whitehall with other departments to secure increased investment in crime prevention - particularly to help tackle the recent rise in violent youth crime. The public health approach to crime pioneered in Glasgow that is now also being implemented in London and places like Reading, needs to be resourced on a cross-departmental basis. A cross-departmental review should be established in SR2019 for children and young people at risk, taking into account the need to align spending on children's services, with policing, mental health services, youth services and others.

C5. Create statutory framework for task force-working to include a broad range of agencies - along lines of US High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas.

It has long been recognised that for effective long-lasting consolidated outcomes a multi- agency approach is required. Too often these are complicated by differentiated organisational objectives, short term expediency, and ill-defined operating models. Whilst there have been recent attempts at achieving agreed structures for action these have not been successful. Consideration should be given to creating a statutory framework for multi agency working. A model to be built on could be the US HIDTAs. These High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas are approved and funded by Congress and relevant local and federal bodies are required to operate together to focus on a discrete problem with accountability back to Congress. Single Outcome Agreements in Scotland are similar.

D. Public & Business Engagement

D1. Begin a public engagement programme to secure media and public support for shifting resources from low to high risk-based priorities.

Because the occasional failure doesn’t meet the “Daily Mail test”, large amounts of resource are wasted on low-risk individuals and cases when they should be concentrated where they are really needed. For instance, every applicant for an initial adult passport is interviewed face to face. We need to get to the point where the media and the public insist that we don’t do this sort of thing.

D2: A new strategic capability to engage businesses in crime prevention.

It is a myth that the police alone are responsible for crime. There are vast resources of crime prevention beyond the state and particularly within business. There are more licensed private security guards than police officers in the UK. Business investments in cyber security outweigh those of the state. However, some businesses don’t take their responses to crimes affecting their customers seriously. Business interests do not always align with those of law enforcement or criminal justice agencies. And they often lack vital information and capabilities to tackle crime issues and need the support of the state to be more effective.

Crimes epidemics relating to security vulnerabilities or criminal innovation can appear very rapidly – be that mobile phone subscription fraud, moped crime or new online scams. These cause huge economic and social harm and make the UK a more attractive place for both organised and opportunistic criminal activity. To stay ahead in the crime ‘arms race’, the Home Office needs to build a new capability – either within or outside the Home Office – that identifies emerging crime problems drawing on local insights and engages with business to prevent them, using a mixture of encouragement, support, challenge and – where necessary – regulatory compulsion to ensure businesses are protecting their customers. The success of telecommunications companies in reducing mobile phone fraud, the car industry in overseeing a six-fold reduction in car crime in the 90s and 2000s and metal traders and government collaborating to drive down metal theft all show the dramatic impact that such an approach can have.

D3: Set-up of a deliberative process (citizens jury or similar) to debate key policy trade-offs for example, to debate liberty and security issues, policing priorities, or immigration strategy.

The Home Office deals with issues that are both highly emotive and highly complex. Traditional approaches to understanding public preferences and gaining support for policy choices – for example, surveys - are fundamentally flawed because they ask people for gut responses to single issues rather than bringing the public into the complex choices and trade-offs involved in decision making. They also do not provide the public with reassurance that ‘people like them’ have mulled the issues and come to a conclusion. The recent deliberation around the Irish abortion referendum provides a model to learn from and the Home Office and organisations working with it (such as the police) need to start testing the approaches to deliberation that will provide the best insight and will enable the difficult trade-offs that are always required in the Home Office’s core policy areas.

E. Others/Digital/Technology

E1. Introduce automatic proactive passport renewal using facial ageing algorithms.

Nine months before your passport arrives you get an email/letter linked to a website or app; if you consent, the app/site uses your computer or smartphone to take a picture of you; you fill up the form online and pay a (reduced) fee; the picture is then checked automatically against your previous one using a facial ageing algorithm if necessary; your new passport arrives by post a couple of days later; no human is involved; advantages: millions of pounds of savings in staff time; much better user experience; seamless renewal for most customers; staff can concentrate on the difficult cases.

E2. Save money and time by using smartphone apps and location services to reduce in-person/physical reporting.

Most smartphone users use their devices incessantly. There are many areas of Home Office business where we need to keep track of people and we get them to report from time to time. Proper use of smartphone location and biometric services can greatly reduce the need for physical reporting and do a better job too.

E3. Lead a cross-government programme to create a national system of unique digital identifiers.

Countries such as Estonia and Denmark are leading the world in digitizing government. While the primary focus has been ease of access to government services, there are also clear benefits for law enforcement, immigration and security in “locking” an individual’s digital identity. At the heart of effective digital government is the creation of a unique digital identifier for each individual, which is recognized (and required) across all departments and services, linking all references to that individual across multiple datasets.

E4. The police service to be given the resources they need to meet the challenges of the 21st century.

Very much like prisons, we sometimes feel caught in a debate between additional resources or deeper reform when it comes to policing. We need both. However, old -fashioned and unlikely, we do need to make the case for it. Whether this means returning to 2010 levels, more or less is for someone else to work out. While overall crime is down, the crimes that are being committed more frequently are those that are 'demand heavy'.

In addition the police are increasingly busy dealing with 'non-crime'; the wider failures in relation to complex needs and vulnerabilities: from mental health, drug and alcohol. And while public expectations could in theory be managed, it is clear that the public do not want the police to retreat and do not want to see a police service that neglects these issues.Yet they cannot be tackled without a 'whole justice' approach. The police play an important role in responding to issues resulting from vulnerabilities that actually require health, social care and multi-agency responses.

E5. Change Immigration Visa System to a Risk based insurance model with differentiated application across the world.

Current system follows similar processes worldwide. Data is now available from Exit checks and other sources which provides details of compliance with immigration rules on a national, gender and age basis. This evidence should be used to implement a differential approach to Visa’s, so each country, or region within countries, has a risk-based approach. Some would require more checks, interviews, possibly cash deposits and sponsors as risks are higher. The fees in those countries should be much higher to cover these costs. Other countries may justify a lighter touch approach, with reduced cost, or no Visa regime at all justified through demonstrable evidence of compliance.

Provenance and Guiding Philosophy

The convenors of the meeting were Nigel Hall , designer and project leader of the Churchill 2015 21st Century Global Leadership Programme, and Paddy Nicoll , Trustee at the Invictus Games and the HALO Trust. The methodology and approach were inspired by the concept of a ‘New Bletchley’ – a proposed 21st century network of thinkers, leaders, and stakeholders coming together to decipher Britain’s challenges.

This concept is based on the following:

• There are no shortages of good ideas and clever people.
  
• There is a systemic problem of getting the best ideas to the top and then implementing and delivering them effectively.
  
• Government and public bodies are slow moving,
  
• They need help from apolitical teams of citizens coming together for the common good.
  
• Public engagement and public square debate will help revitalise 21st century democracy, governance and society.   

Nigel Hall and Paddy Nicoll

December 2018

©️NewBletchley December 2018